SWGA Politics

Moving Targets

Quite a few new developments came out yesterday in the continuing saga of the fallout of Glenn Richardson’s political collapse, and I want to get y’all caught up, for the moment, on where things currently stand – at least as best as possible, given the currently available information.

In the Speaker chase, several new names cropped up. Erick Erickson, in an endgame I knew had to exist, went forward endorsing Tom Graves for the job late last night. Earlier in the day, a Facebook group to get Barry Loudermilk the job was created, and Bill Greene, a recent candidate for Mayor of Braselton, GA, wrote an article on the Campaign For Liberty site about this. The Facebook group was created by Jenny Hodges, Ray McBerry’s campaign manager, and quite a few of its current 22 members are people associated with Ray McBerry’s campaign, including the man who openly called for war against the US Government a month ago, State Rep Bobby Franklin. Quite frankly, while Loudermilk is well regarded, he simply doesn’t have the influence to pull this move off, and it is a VAST over-reach, which we’ll talk about in a moment.

Also placing his name in the Speaker chase was Tommy Smith, whom AJC’s Political Insider Jim Galloway credits as being the first entrant. Smith, an unknown who had many questions of “Who??” and “What????” erupting (even though he has been in the House for 30 years, much of that time as a Democrat) is running for the job on the promise of ending the hawk system I still need to get a chance to write about, but which DuBose Porter has made some great points against.

Others who have been named as possible contenders include Larry O’Neal of Warner Robbins (currently the chairman of the very influential Ways and Means Committee) and David Ralston.

Not only do you have the Speakership officially up for grabs, but there are also movements to replace Mark Burkhalter as Speaker Pro-Tem and even Jerry Keen as Majority Leader – positions which aren’t up for election until 2011 unless some drastic things happen. Into those cauldrons, names such as David Ralston, Rich Golick, Jan Jones, and Clay Cox have been thrown – which Golick and Cox officially in the races. I already said my piece on Ralston, but let me note that Jan Jones is Mark Burkhalter’s closest ally. Any advance she makes would give Burkhalter a back-door influence, particularly if she replaces him as Speaker Pro-Tem.

On Cox, I take issue with the closing line of the email he sent out announcing his candidacy for the job. He, a Representative from Gwinnett County (barely 30 miles away from the Gold Dome), said “You also know that I go home at night to my wife and children- and that will not change.” That’s all well and good, but what about the rural legislators from down here in South GA – or even parts of North GA – who can’t go home to their wife and children every night, because it is literally a 3+ hr drive? Do you honestly think you are somehow better than they, Mr. Cox?

With all the names being considered for these jobs, it potentially opens up other jobs down the line, and we will see where the dominos continue to fall in this era of such rapidly moving targets.

But here’s the thing to remember, going back to the over-reaching aspect I mentioned in connection to Loudermilk above: Politically, it is very important to play agressive yet conservative here. The biggest danger any of these or others face is in over-playing their hand and losing big. It could very well remove whatever levels of influence they currently have, and that will take time to rebuild – if it is even possible. For some of these unknowns, rather than going for one of the top jobs in the House/Caucus, why not try to move up the ladder by angling for a Chairmanship or higher-ranking Chairmanship if you’re already a Chairman? Instead of going for Speaker, cut the deal with someone else to throw your support to them for Speaker in return for them supporting you for Majority Whip or some slightly lower position. Play the game well, and you could win big – if you’re patient. Play too aggressively too early, and become the next Bobby Franklin in a real big hurry.

My final note on this is the same one I mentioned yesterday: Remember, whatever happens in the coming weeks, this coming Session it is important to rock the boat enough that voters don’t rock you out, but politically the next few months are all about not rocking too hard and losing what influence you have right now.

Because the real battle within the Caucus and the House is not right now. It is 2011, when all positions are open for re-election, including committee chairmanships and assignments. At the very least, the game right now must be played with that simple fact in mind.