Late last night, after I got home from buying my first ever truck from the great folks over at Ford Town (2006 Ford F-150 Triton XLT), I got an email from the Ox campaign that basically wanted me to look at EVERYONE’s numbers over the three polls in question – they specifically mentioned Handel and Deal, though I’m expanding this to look at everyone’s numbers.
Jason has a great table over at GeorgiaLegislativeWatch.com (where I’ll once again be helping him out once the General Assembly starts back) with all the polling data, including the Rasmussen polls in question, which is specifically what I am looking at here.
John Oxendine has gone from 35% on the June 22 survey to 31% on the Aug 21 to 27% on the most recent one, as we’ve already seen. The Ox camp would like me to point out that this is only a 13% drop in two months – but it is a 23% drop overall. (I threw that last part in, they didn’t mention that – wonder why?) Also note that they had a 11% DROP from June to August that preceded the 13% DROP in the most recent data – hence the ‘implosion’ post.
Karen Handel went from 11% in June to 13% in August to 12% now. That was a 18% RISE from June to August, followed by a 8% DROP from August to now, resulting in a 9% RISE overall.
Nathan Deal went from 10% in June to 13% in August to 9% now. That is a 30% RISE from June to August, followed by a 31% DROP from August to now, resulting in a 10% DROP overall.
Undecided was the other thing the Ox camp mentioned, so I’ll discuss it before moving on to the other actual candidates: Undecided was at 33% in June, went to 31% in August, and then to 35% in the most recent data. That is a 6% DROP from June to August followed by a 13% RISE from August to now, resulting in a 6% RISE overall.
Moving on to candidates that Ox didn’t mention, I’m going to take this straight across the table based on the GLW post I mentioned above.
First, we come to Eric Johnson, who has remained steady across all three polls at 3% – the only completely steady candidate so far, and this early in the race it is much better to remain steady or rise than to fall, as each of the other candidates we’ve discussed so far have done at least once.
Ray McBerry actually holds a winning distinction in this campaign so far – he is the only actual candidate to successfully RISE across all three polls. He started out in June at 1%, went to 2% in August, and now sits at 3%. This was a 100% rise from June to August followed by a 50% rise from August to October, for an overall 200% rise. If his actual numbers increase along this path, he may wind up around 7% next July – but if his increase percentages follow their pattern, his totals in July are likely to be 2-3 points lower than his raw numbers suggest.
Austin Scott is the next candidate not yet discussed, and he remained steady in June and August at 2%, then ROSE to 3% in October. This is a 50% RISE from August to October after remaining steady from June to August, for an overall 50% RISE.
Rasmussen also has a column they call “Other Candidate”. This could actually be anyone not listed, though the only announced GOP GAGOV candidate other than those already discussed is State Sen Jeff Chapman of Brunswick. The “other candidate” – again, NOT specifically Chapman – went from 5% in June to 6% in August to 7% now. This is a 20% RISE from June to August, followed by a 17% RISE from August to now, for an overall 40% RISE.
So here’s a summary:
Deal: RISE, then FALL. Overall FALL.
Handel: RISE, then FALL. Overall RISE.
Johnson: STEADY over all polls so far.
McBerry: RISE over both polls. Overall RISE.
Oxendine: FALL over both polls. Overall FALL.
Scott: STEADY, then RISE. Overall RISE.
“Other”: RISE over both polls. Overall RISE.
Undecided: FALL, then RISE. Overall RISE.
As you can see, the ONLY GOP candidate to FALL across both polls is, in fact, John Oxendine.
Hence, the statement that John Oxendine is imploding is, in fact, accurate – no matter what the Ox camp wants to think.
