Today’s Headline Around the State

Barnes is in.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Jim Galloway broke the story at midnight.

Creative Loafing (another, smaller, Atlanta based newspaper/magazine) picked it up shortly thereafter, with Peach Pundit not far behind.

Without a doubt, the 2010 Governor Race just got a LOT more drama added to it.

As AJC’s Jim Galloway noted, Barnes will be the first Governor in more 50 years to attempt to come back for a second term after serving only one term prior. The last to even try it, much less do it? Eugene Talmadge. To those of around my generation who don’t really know that name, it means little – but back in the 30s and 40s, Talmadge was as popular in Georgia as FDR was nationally. And Roy Eugene Barnes was named after him.

DuBose Porter, the man Austin Scott called the Democrats’ best chance, has already come out swinging against Barnes, pointing out that the Georgia of 2002 that kicked Barnes to the curb is pretty much the same Georgia of 2010.

Without a doubt, Barnes still has quite a bit to overcome. His policies as Governor are well known, and he will no doubt take a beating for them again – something he couldn’t survive in 2002. In 2002, he didn’t have to worry about facing a minority candidate in the primary, and as 2008 proved, institutional racism can be a real pain to overcome in a Democratic Party primary. (Note here that I am NOT claiming all blacks or all Democrats are racist. Simply pointing out that in a race with basically two candidates, one of each main race, the vote should have been roughly 50/50 – and was, among whites and most minorities outside African Americans. African Americans, however, went roughly 80% or higher to the ‘African American’ candidate, even in the Democratic Primary.)

Also, not only do you have institutional racism working against Barnes, you’ve also got institutional memory. Here, I point to another key group for any statewide politician: teachers. Teachers are credited with kicking Roy Barnes out of office in 2002 probably more than any other group – and I doubt they’ve forgotten why. If they have, I’m quite sure Barnes’ competitors will be more than happy to remind them. Barnes will have no defense against this in the Primary from Baker, as Baker hasn’t been involved in education at all. As a lifelong Democrat, the issue might hurt Porter, as Porter more than likely supported many of Barnes’ education initiatives that got him thrown out. (Admittedly, I could be wrong about that, I haven’t yet done that research and make that claim purely on party affiliation.)

IF Barnes survives the primary, the issue will only build in intensity, as the man most would say is most responsible for any worsenings in education over the last 8 yrs – Governor Sonny Perdue – won’t be a candidate in this election, and the best Barnes will be able to do is to paint a broad brush over ‘Republicans’ in general – though he WILL catch three current legislators who are running for Governor in the same trap that Porter is in. (Scott, Johnson, and Deal.)

Furthermore, you’ve got to look at in-State geo-politics. Yes, metro Atlanta has the most votes. But rural parts of the State, particularly South GA, still carry enough weight to swing elections if Atlanta is split. And right now, the supposed ‘front runners’ all live within about 50 miles of each other in the northern metro Atlanta suburbs – meaning they will be drawing from a lot of the same locals for their hard-core support, thereby diluting the strength of that key area.

Finally, you’ve still got Barnes’ ego to contend with, along with the fact that he is still a very popular figure in many Democratic – and even some Republican – circles. That alone is a true force to be reckoned with, and he may yet pull this off.

I’ll tell you this right now: If the two current supposed ‘front runners’ (Barnes and Ox) for the two halves of the Big Government Party are in fact their nominees, MY vote is absolutely going for the Libertarian, John Monds, in November – and I think the Big Government Party will do much of my work for me in convincing the voters of Georgia that Monds should get their vote as well.