[UPDATED] The Requisite Roy Barnes Speculation Post

Ok, so the talk of the town in Georgia political circles these days happens to involve a certain very well paid Cobb County lawyer – who also happens to be one of very few (if not the only) single term Governors in the history of this State. Pretty much every political blog in this Great State has had at least one post on this lawyer, with SWGAPolitics.com being one of very few exceptions – until now.

Yes, as the title says, this is the Requisite Roy Barnes Speculation Post.

I’ve got different ideas on the subject from two different sources, both with quite a bit of experience in the Gold Dome. The one that was on the record was State Rep Austin Scott (R-Tifton), who could well be the GOP nominee that would go directly against Barnes between next July and next November – at least he hopes he is. The other source requested to remain anonymous, and I’m not about to deny that request.

According to Rep Scott, the Democratic Party of Georgia has to have three big-name people to run in the three positions at the top of the ticket – Governor, US Senate, and Lt Governor. He feels that Barnes will be in one of those three, quite possibly US Senate.

The other source takes more of what I deem to be the GOP party line on this, saying it is basically Governor or bust for Mr. Barnes.

Looking at it from my own perspective, let’s look at some ideas here:

• Roy Barnes’ reputation as ‘King Roy’ was never meant in a flattering way – and was well earned, according to MANY with experience under the Dome during his reign.
• Roy Barnes’ arrogance knows no bounds, also a reputation many would deem to be well earned. (such as with the flag, to cite one of the more controversial examples)
• Barnes is one of few – and may be the only – single term Governors in the 200+ year history of this State.
• Barnes is a highly paid lawyer in private life and from all accounts I hear he is enjoying his that life as well as having the time to spend time with family and grandkids.
• US Senate is on par prestige-wise with Governor, maybe even slightly higher.
• Lt Governor is certainly lower than each of the other two positions.
• Governor seat is open, US Senate seat is held by a popular incumbent.

But let’s also look at another factor: the high number of candidates in the GOP Governor field. With GAGOP trending more and more lily-white, the high number of candidates in this race will give more and more white voters who may otherwise have voted in the Democratic Primary a reason to jump ship and vote in the GOP Primary – even if just to vote ‘against’ a man they deeply despise.

This will result in minorities having an even larger share of the Democratic Primary than they already do – and it is already about 50% minority in that particular primary. Perhaps as much as 60-75% or more of the Democratic Primary vote could become minority if enough whites are persuaded to vote in the GOP Primary for whatever reason.

In 2008 alone, minority vote went something like 80-90% for the ‘minority’ candidate for President.

There is a minority candidate in the Democratic Primary – Thurbert Baker.

But there is still Barnes’ arrogance to contend with. The fact of being one of very few single term GA Governors can’t be that great of a feeling. I’m sure he’d like a crack at some redemption – particularly now that 8 yrs have passed and politicians count on voters having short memory and attention spans.

So which of the three basic options will he choose?

A) Enter as the only (so far) Democrat candidate to challenge the popular Republican incumbent for US Senate?

B) Enter as a highly popular Democrat in the Governor race where his lack of melanin may play a bigger role than his stances on the issues?

C) Sit at home with a fine brandy and cigar playing with the grandkids and laugh at all of us political bloggers who keep speculating that he wants anything more to do with GA politics?

If it were ME making those choices, C wins hands down. No discussion needed at all, I’d tell you that up front.

In the case of Barnes, while I think he may well be the Democrats’ best chance of taking that Senate seat, ultimately I do think he’s also going to go with option C.

[UPDATE] According to AJC’s Jim Galloway, Barnes chose option B.